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Demographic forecasting

£15.99

Product description

Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more

Item details

Author(s):
Girosi and King
Condition:
Used: very good
Dimensions:
254x203.2x18
EAN-13:
9780691130958
Format:
Paperback
ISBN-13:
9780691130958
Number of items:
1
Number of pages:
288
Publisher:
Princeton University Press

Standard UK Delivery (£3.95 per order)

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About this item

Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more

Author(s):
Girosi and King
Condition:
Used: very good
Dimensions:
254x203.2x18
EAN-13:
9780691130958
Format:
Paperback
ISBN-13:
9780691130958
Number of items:
1
Number of pages:
288
Publisher:
Princeton University Press

Delivery & returns

This item will be dispatched to UK addresses via second class post within 7 working days of receipt of your order. Standard UK delivery is £3.95 per order, so you're only charged once no matter how many items you have in your basket. Any additional courier charges will be applied at checkout as they vary depending on delivery address.

This item will be dispatched to UK addresses via second class post within 7 working days of receipt of your order. Standard UK delivery is currently free, no matter how many items you have in your basket. Any additional courier charges will be applied at checkout as they vary depending on delivery address.

We offer a 30 day no quibble returns policy. You can find out more about delivery and returns in our help section. You have the option of a full refund or exchange for an alternative item from the range.

This item is also available for international delivery by airmail, carrying a mandatory delivery charge of:

Europe: £8.00

Outside Europe: £15.00

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